News & Investment Updates From Hemlock Creek Wealth Management

In investing, uncertainty isn’t a bug — it’s a feature.

No matter how much data we gather or how many historical patterns we study, markets have a way of surprising even the most seasoned observers. The challenge isn’t in predicting these surprises; it’s in expecting and preparing for them.

At Hemlock Creek Wealth Management, we believe the best defense against uncertainty isn’t complexity, but simplicity. Rather than layering on endless rules to account for every possible market twist, we focus on the few relationships that have demonstrated durability over time. One of the most reliable patterns we observe is the clustering of volatility — the idea that extreme moves, both up and down, often come in waves.

April provided a vivid reminder of this phenomenon, as sharp declines and dramatic rallies unfolded within days of each other. Moments like these reinforce why our systematic investing approach emphasizes trend direction, not short-term prediction. It’s not about avoiding every bump; it’s about consistently adapting to the environment, reducing risk when conditions warrant, and positioning for long-term compounding.

In this Investment Update, we explore how April’s market behavior illustrated the power — and necessity — of simplicity, discipline, and flexibility in portfolio management.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for May.