News & Investment Updates From Hemlock Creek Wealth Management

Not all threats are created equal. Two situations might look similar on the surface, but that doesn’t mean they should be treated the same. 

This principle is especially true in markets, where risks can appear familiar but behave very differently based on what came before.

This is where a systematic investing process can show its strength. Rather than treating every downturn the same, it adapts to context — recognizing when a pullback is just noise versus when it might be the start of something more serious. That adaptability is especially relevant now, as recent signals have led our systems to reduce exposure to U.S. equities.

In this month’s Note, we revisit two market corrections that looked nearly identical in speed and magnitude — but triggered opposite portfolio responses. The difference wasn’t in the outcome; it was in the setup. And that distinction is exactly why we follow process over prediction.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for April.

Great investors don’t just accumulate experience — they learn from it. The best share a common trait: they don’t chase what’s flashy or react impulsively. They rely on time-tested processes that remove emotion from decision-making.

After years of observing what works and what doesn’t, we have seen investors make the same mistakes over and over: chasing past winners, selling in fear, and letting short-term emotions derail long-term success.

Every year, the data confirms what professional advisors have long known: investor behavior is often the biggest drag on returns. An annual study by DALBAR quantifies this gap, showing just how much poor decision-making costs the average investor. The takeaway is clear — having a disciplined strategy isn’t just about maximizing returns, it’s about avoiding the self-inflicted wounds that erode them.

In this month’s Note, we explore why closing the behavior gap is one of the most valuable roles an advisor can play. We also highlight why systematic trend following isn’t just an investment strategy, it’s a behavioral advantage that helps investors stay the course through all market conditions.

But first, here’s a summary of the global asset classes utilized in our portfolios and their exposures for March.